Stock Market Commentary for March 8-12

What a positive stock market we had in the past week and this was topped off by a better than expected US Employment report. The jobs report showed job losses fewer than expected and it caused the market to rally higher. Based on the market’s upward movement in the past few weeks, we are seeing an overbought market meaning that buyers of stock are overwhelming the sellers.  In this scenario, for smart traders, it’s time to lighten the buying and start looking to sell off your positions.

If you missed the stock market’s upward movement in the past few weeks then I would be careful in buying this market. As well, baring any significant surprises in the stock market, it will be a very slow trading week. There are however two important US Economic data set to be released this week. We have US Retail Sales and US Consumer Sentiment released on Fri March 12. Other than that, we’ll be keeping an eye on the Greece financial crisis.

We will be on the sidelines this week watching as we don’t see anything that is considered a good opportunity. The market is way overbought but we don’t want to short this strong market. If we see any opportunities, be sure to visit our blog daily for any updates.

Mike

Stock Market commentary for March 1 – 5

Trading has ended for the month of February and it has been a volatile month. As well, we’ve seen choppy trading especially last week in the markets where market has a non-directional bias. Hopefully, this month will be different as we expect March to be a much better month than Feb. Here are this week’s upcoming major catalysts that could drive the markets higher:

- Greece financial crisis situation: Traders are hoping to hear the news that the EU will help bailout Greece and their financial situation stabilize. If we see this then we could see a major boost to the markets worldwide.

- US Employment situation: The US job numbers are set to be released this Friday and based on the last two weekly jobless claims, this number may show that the US employment situation is not improving. If the US economy is on its way to recovery then the US unemployment rate must drop.

Based on our analysis of the stock charts, we should expect to see a rise in the stock market and the sectors that we like are the technology and financial sector. We like Research in Motion (RIMM) for a breakout price above $72 and Amazon.com (AMZN) for a breakout price above $121. As well, we like the Financial Sector 3X ETF (FAS) for a breakout above $76 and Goldman Sachs (GS) above $160.

Please read disclaimer on the site before making any financial decisions.

Have a great trading week!

Mike Ser

Stock market commentary for Feb 22-26

This week is going to be called Ben Bernanke week as he is set to speak on Mon, Wed and Thu. Given that the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate on loans made directly to banks last week, we will be looking to hear any hints of raising US interest rates and his assessment of the US economy. Bernanke is a market mover so be careful when he speaks. Also, there are quite a number of significant US economic data coming out this week. The most important ones you need to be aware of are:

Tues: Consumer Confidence

Wed: New Home Sales

Thu: Durable Goods Orders, Jobless claims

Fri: GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Existing Home Sales

The market had a nice recovery last week from the sell off in the past few weeks and we’re looking for the market to pullback a bit. We’re short term overbought here and we’re not looking to buy anything right now. However, you may want to consider putting on some short positions and you can consider buying the inverse etf’s such as sds, faz, dog and qid.

Have a great trading week and be sure to check back here for any trading opportunities.

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International Trader’s Expo Event Summary

Hey fellow traders. Last week, I took the opportunity to take a few days off and headed to NY for the popular Trader’s Expo show. Besides the headache of going thru airport security and US customs, it’s always a pleasure to be in New York City. Being close to the action of Wall Street and the vibrant energy of New Yorkers, you feel that you are in the center of the financial universe.

There were a lot of really good speakers at the show and I want to share with you their thoughts about the stock market. Most agreed that the US stock market is going to be in a trading range for most of the year. However, there will be some good trading opportunities but not as good as last year. What traders are doing are buying stocks at support levels and then selling or shorting them at resistance levels. The main theme was you gotta be a trader in this type of market environment as the market will continue to be volatile.

A topic that was talked a lot about was automated trading where you program computers to trade for you. This has become very popular in the past few years as computers dominate trading on Wall Street and I attended several seminars related to this topic. Tradestation Securities, a leading brokerage firm has a very comprehensive platform that allows you to program your strategies and back test them. As well, they will soon be offering a service which allows you for a monthly fee to follow other people’s automated strategies.

Also, currency trading or forex trading has become increasingly popular due to the extreme volatility in today’s forex market. In fact, forex trading is ideal for daytraders who want to take advantage of the ups and downs of the forex markets. There were a lot of vendors promoting their forex brokerage platform at the show and with leverage of up to 500 to 1 with some firms, there’s a lot of opportunities to make a living trading the forex market.

Also, I attended several ETF or commonly called exchange traded funds seminars and the common theme was traders nowadays don’t really trade specific stocks but trade mainly ETF’s or stock market indices. No trader wants to pick a bad stock and due to the volatility, there are lots of opportunities in trading sectors or indices. As well, there were a lot of seminars teaching people how to trade futures instead of stocks. Futures trading is a risky proposition for newbies but provides advanced traders with tremendous leverage on their capital.

Lastly, I attended a few seminars on trading psychology and for those who have traded for awhile will know that your trading mindset is the key to profits in the markets. They talked about managing your emotional capital the same way that you manage your risk capital or money. Don’t deplete your emotional capital as that will cause you to be so frustrated that you will make some very bad decisions in the market. They talked about the #1 EMOTION to be fearful of when trading was the fear of missing out on a good trade. This causes traders to get into a trade that they shouldn’t have. The #2 EMOTION to be fearful of is the fear of being wrong.  It’s okay to be wrong and in fact, if you can get comfortable with it, your trading will ultimately improve.

Overall, it was a great educational experience especially for those who trade for a living. It shows that in order to be a successful trader, you need to continually learn about the markets and the tools that will help you succeed. You can find out more info about the show at www.tradersexpo.com.

I’m in NY for the Trader’s Expo conference from Feb 12-17

There is no market commentary this week due to my attendance at the Trader’s Expo in NY. What I hope to do is provide you with a summary of any interesting trading ideas and strategies that I learned at the show.

Talk to you guys next week.

Mike

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Five Key Steps to Day Trading Success

Day Trading has become more popular again in the past 5 years and it has a lot to do with the volatility in the stock market. The slow and steady rise in the stock market in the 80’s and 90’s has drastically changed to a market that can move up and down like a roller coaster in an instant. The increase in volatility can be attributed to technology as nowadays people get access to information much quicker and therefore, people are able to react to good or bad news faster. This presents an opportunity for people who are actively trading the stock market on a short term basis.

Since the worldwide recession started in 2008, many people lost their jobs and were forced to create their own jobs or become self employed because they couldn’t find any suitable jobs. Many people looked at trying to make money in the stock market on a daily basis by becoming day traders. For those who don’t know, Day traders are people who buy and sell any financial instrument within the same trading day and all their positions are closed before the market closes each day. You may have guessed that a lot of these day traders lost money and you were right. Many people perceive day trading as a path to wealth and the lifestyle of financial freedom. However, this competitive game of day trading is extremely risky and the odds are against you in favor of failure. In fact, there are studies out there that show that over 70% of day traders lose money in their first year of trading. However, for those who are comfortable with this type of environment it can be a very profitable and rewarding venture. Let me share with you my experiences as a day trader and how you can become the other 30% who succeed as day traders.

The first and most important lesson you should follow is to first find a mentor who has been successfully trading the stock market for a long time so he/she can guide you in the right direction. You can try to learn the stock market on your own but I can guarantee that you will end up losing a lot of money due to your inexperience or lack of knowledge. A mentor can tell you what mistakes he has made and the ways that he has made money in the past. If you can find a good mentor, this will save you a lot of money and headache.

Another important lesson is to practice your day trading techniques and strategies with a demo or simulated trading account first. These accounts will not use your real money and it will tell you if you are ready to become a day trader. If you are not making money on a demo account, you will probably not make money on a live account with your real money.

The third lesson is to only trade with money that you can afford to lose and not affect your daily lifestyle. If you are trading with money that you need to pay your monthly bills with then you are guaranteed to fail. The reason is there is no guarantee of profits when you are day trading. Some days you will lose money and some days you will make money.

The forth lesson is before you day trade each day, decide how much you are willing to risk and stick to it. If your day trading activities reach your target loss for the day then stop trading for that day and shut off your computer. This keeps your losses in control and you live to trade another day.

Lastly, have a day trading plan in place before you trade each day. Know exactly what stock you are trading, the entry and exit price and more importantly, what price you will get out if your trade doesn’t work out. If you have a plan every day then you increase your probability of success.

Day trading is not easy and it takes a lot of hard work. Take your time to learn about the day trading business to see if it is the right fit for you.

Stock Market commentary for Feb 8-12

It should be a slow week in the markets as there is very little important US economic data coming out and no major catalysts. The only US economic data we may be interested in is the US Retail Sales for Jan figure that is set to be released on Thu Feb 11. The sales data should be expected to be low given it is at the beginning of the year but it will be interesting to see if there is any improvement from last year. We did see a sharp rebound in the stock market late friday afternoon and on a lot of the charts, we saw a hammer formation which is bullish for the markets. I suspect that we’ll get some sort of a market rally since we are so oversold in the short term. If there’s no negative news then we might see a bias towards the upside this week. Good luck!

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Stock Market commentary for Feb 1-5

The stock market started off this week with a upward bounce based on extremely oversold levels. I’m not surprised to see this upward bias (at least for now) but the main uptrend has been broken so we should expect the downtrend to resume shortly sometime this week. The main thing we are watching this week is the Employment situation on Friday. If the jobs number doesnt show any signs of improving and the unemployment rate doesnt go down then we will see a continuation of this downtrend.

Traditionally, February is not a good month in the markets. We expect to see a correction continue in February and the best way to play this is to look at buying the inverse etf’s. For those who arent familiar with exchange traded funds (ETF’s), please download our free ebook on our website at www.activetradersacademy.com. These inverse etf’s go up in value when the stock market goes down. Enjoy.

Posted in: Market Commentary by Mike Ser No Comments

Short selling your way to quick profits in the Stock Market

Over the past ten years since I’ve been playing the stock market, I always get asked by people what is the quickest way to make money in the stock market. Is it by finding a good company stock and buying low and then selling high? Or maybe it is finding some good news about a specific company and buying before the stock price goes higher? How bout finding a company stock or sector that is performing very poorly but it hasn’t been reflected in the stock price? What I am referring to is betting the stock price will go down and profiting from it. You might ask yourself, how is that possible? Most people believe they can only make money when the stock market goes up but I am going to introduce you a concept called short selling.

Short selling is a key component of most hedge fund managers and involves the borrowing and selling of a stock that the investor doesn’t own in anticipation of buying it back at a lower price in the future. Therefore, investors attempt to profit from a decline in a company’s stock price. Collectively, a short stock portfolio can profit from a stock market decline and thereby act as a portfolio hedge to long positions that would likely decline during a stock market correction. As well, investors can short company stocks and profit from their decline based on poor company fundamentals. These factors can include poor management, overvaluation and declining revenues. During the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, many investors saw their stock market portfolio decline rapidly. In fact, so many people lost money in the stock market that they never invested in the stock market again. However, there were other investors who generated huge returns during this period of time.

How did they do it? They invested in inverse ETF’s or commonly called Exchange Traded Funds. These ETF’s offered investors the ability to profit or profit themselves during a downward trend in the stock market. Inverse ETF’s go up in value as the stock market or sector goes down. A good example is in late 2008 when the US Real Estate sector was performing poorly, one of the popular Inverse Real Estate ETF’s (SRS) went up 500% in 3 months. In fact, most of the inverse ETF’s went up in value during the financial crisis time period. Besides the usual benefit of an etf like ease of use, there are two other reasons inverse etf’s can fit well in an investor’s portfolio. If an investor has an account that doesn’t allow shorting stocks, the investor can buy an inverse etf instead. Another reason is that an investor will not have to hold a margin account as he would when shorting a stock. This means that the investor doesn’t have any margin risk which could cause the investor to lose more than he owns.

Another example of short selling becoming more prominent in the world stock market is in China. Since the Shanghai Stock Exchange was founded in 1990, Chinese investors have only been able to bet on prices going in one direction and it is up. That is set to change, however, as the government in Beijing has approved long awaited reforms that will allow traders to profit from falling, as well as rising, markets.

What is the biggest risk to short selling? History has shown that, in general stocks have an upward bias to the upside. Over the long run, most stocks appreciate in price. So if the direction of the stock market trend is up then a short position can be quite risky. Short selling is mainly for investors who want to profit on a specific company or sector that is performing poorly in the short term. This could range from 3 to 6 months.

What are some inverse etf’s to buy? Here are a few to consider when the stock market is dropping: DOG (Dow Jones 30 index), SH (S&P 500 index), PSQ (Nasdaq 100) and SEF (US Financial Index).

The stock market has had an amazing performance since March 2009 and recently in the past week, it has fallen sharply. Maybe it’s time to take a look at protecting your stock market portfolio and profiting from the declines in the stock market.

Stock Market commentary for Jan 25-29, 2010

We had a major correction in the stock market last week and saw a lot of stocks and sectors drop dramatically especially on Thu and Fri. Looking at the charts, all the major stock market indices broke major support levels so we might see the  start of a downward trend in the markets (at least short term). We got some major stock market  news and data coming out this week. President Obama will be giving his State of the Union address on Wed Jan 27. Also, we have the FOMC meeting announcement on Wed Jan 27 as well so that could move the markets as well.

Be careful if you are still long or heavily invested in the markets.

Mike Ser

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